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SUMMARY: Seeking re-election amid scandal is a recipe for a shrill, shallow, one-sided campaign.
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Montana Democrats have got the perfect candidate to help them take the U.S. Senate seat up for election next year away from the Republicans. His name is Conrad Burns.
Burns, of course, is the three-term Republican incumbent. As a candidate for re-election, however, he may prove more valuable to the Democrats than to his own political party. Of greater concern is the likelihood that a race involving Burns next year is most unlikely to involve much serious discussion of government policy and almost certainly will be dominated by matters of ethics.
With the election less than a year away, Burns finds himself embroiled in a serious lobbying scandal. He's been named one of four members of Congress who are included in a U.S. Justice Department influence-peddling investigation centered on indicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Burns took more money from Abramoff, his clients and other donors connected to Abramoff than any other member of Congress - nearly $150,000 between 2001 and 2004. Some large donations nearly coincided with votes or actions taken by Burns favorable to Abramoff's clients. In one instance, Burns helped an Abramoff client, one of the wealthier Indian tribes in the country, in Michigan, to land a federal grant through a program intended to help poor tribes build new schools. In another instance, according to the Associated Press, Burns changed his position on a matter involving the Northern Mariana Islands' garment industry after taking meetings and donations from Abramoff and clients.
In addition to the Justice Department's investigation, Burns also faces a complaint before the Senate Select Committee on Ethics, lodged by the Montana Democratic Party, also in connection with Abramoff.
We aren't in a position to render a judgment about the legality of Burns' activities in office. He's not been charged with any crime and he has publicly denied any wrongdoing. We're not privy to details of the federal investigation. All we know is that, politically, he's damaged goods.
Legal or not, Burns' dealings with Abramoff don't look good. Burns himself recently told a Kalispell TV station, "This Abramoff guy is a bad guy. And he's indicted, and I hope he goes to jail and we never see him again. I wish he'd never been born." Strong language, but not exactly soothing words about Burns' association with Abramoff and the revolving door that existed between the lobbyist's firm and the senator's own staff.
Here's the scenario we foresee if Burns presses ahead with plans to seek re-election next year: The election campaign will focus largely, if not exclusively, on whether Burns is a crook. Other issues of importance to Montanans won't be heard amid the din. Burns will be on the defensive constantly, even if at times he employs the best-defense-is-a-strong-offense stratagem. With the national media spotlight now on him, the scrutiny is only going to increase. At some point, the news could well get worse for him. Money to finance his campaign is going to be harder to raise. Within the realm of possibility is that Burns will be forced to abandon re-election mid-campaign or may become unelectable. That's not a prediction, merely a statement of what seems reasonably possible.
The Republican Party isn't going to shove its incumbent senator aside; not yet anyway. But if Burns fades - or flames out - as a candidate months from now, it's going to be too late to round up a good candidate to wage a viable campaign representing Republican ideals. In that event, Democrats are as likely to win by default as on merit. That's not the way democracy is supposed to work.
Montana voters won't be served by the single-issue, mudslinging campaign Burns invites. Nor will the interests of democracy be served if the GOP can't field a viable candidate - Burns or anyone else.
When he first ran for Senate in 1988, the widest plank in Burns' platform was term limits. Back then, he complained that the entrenched Democratic incumbent spent too much time raising money from and was too beholden to special interests outside Montana. He vowed to leave the Senate after two terms. He doesn't argue for term limits today, but the mess in which he's embroiled is itself a strong argument.
Burns should take a good, long, hard look at the political landscape and the rough campaign trail ahead. He should seek candid advice from the Montana GOP's brain trust. And, most of all, he should consider what's in the best interest of the Montanans he was elected to serve. If he does, he may reach the same conclusion we have: Montanans in general and the GOP in particular will be best served if he doesn't run for a fourth term and, instead, orchestrates a dignified passing of the baton.